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Otter Tail Sees FY25 EPS $5.68-$6.08 Vs $5.63 Est.

Benzinga·02/17/2025 23:44:07
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2025 OUTLOOK

We anticipate 2025 diluted earnings per share to be in the range of $5.68 to $6.08. We expect our earnings mix in 2025 to be approximately 39% from our Electric segment and 61% from our Manufacturing and Plastics segments, net of corporate costs. Our anticipated earnings mix in 2025 deviates from our long-term expected earnings mix of 65% Electric / 35% Non-Electric as we expect Plastics segment earnings to remain elevated in 2025 compared to our long-term view of normal earnings for this segment.

The segment components of our 2025 diluted earnings per share guidance compared with actual earnings for 2024 are as follows:

     

2024 EPS

by Segment

  2025 EPS Guidance
      Low   High
Electric     $ 2.16     $ 2.29     $ 2.35  
Manufacturing       0.33       0.21       0.27  
Plastics       4.77       3.26       3.50  
Corporate       (0.09 )     (0.08 )     (0.04 )
Total     $ 7.17     $ 5.68     $ 6.08  
Return on Equity       19.3 %     13.8 %     14.6 %

The following items contribute to our 2025 earnings guidance:

Electric Segment - We expect segment earnings to increase 7% in 2025 based on the following assumptions:

  • Normal weather conditions in 2025.
  • Returns generated from an increase in average rate base of 12% in 2025 compared to 2024.
  • A planned maintenance outage at Coyote Station in 2025 (there were no planned outages in 2024).
  • Increased depreciation and interest expense from capital expenditures and associated financing.

Manufacturing Segment - We expect segment earnings to decline 27% in 2025 based on the following assumptions:

  • Lower sales volumes in our contract metal fabrication business as soft end market demand continues, partially offset by some volume recovery in our horticulture plastic products business.
  • Sales mix and product pricing pressure in the current sales volume environment, and lower scrap revenues within our metal fabrication business from lower production volumes.
  • Compressed operating margins from the deleveraging of manufacturing costs due to lower production and sales volumes.

Plastics Segment - We expect segment earnings to decline 29% in 2025 based on the following assumptions:

  • Continued decline in product sales prices throughout 2025 as pricing continues to retreat from the 2022 high point.
  • Modest increase in sales volumes driven by new capacity at our Phoenix facility, partially offset by macroeconomic uncertainty.

Corporate Costs - We expect our corporate costs to decrease primarily from lower incentive compensation costs compared to 2024.