US Stocks To Open Higher On Shortened Trading Day: Santa Claus Rally Period Officially Begins, Says Analyst
U.S. stock futures advanced on Tuesday, ahead of a shortened trading session owning to Christmas Eve. The stock market will shut at 1 p.m. ET, while the bond market closes at 2:00 p.m. ET on Tuesday, whereas both the markets will remain closed for Christmas on Dec. 25. Futures of all four major indices advanced.
The S&P 500 index is on its way to registering a robust 20% plus return for the second consecutive year in 2024, as most analysts expect a “Santa Rally” during this time of the year.
The 10-year and two-year Treasury notes yielded 4.59% and 4.34%, respectively. The probability of having no change in the interest rates for the upcoming Jan. 31, 2025 decision was at 91.4%, according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool.
| Futures | Change (+/-) |
| Nasdaq 100 | 0.19% |
| S&P 500 | 0.12% |
| Dow Jones | 0.02% |
| Russell 2000 | 0.02% |
In premarket trading on Tuesday, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) was up 0.16% to $595.67 and the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ:QQQ) rose 0.24% to $524.10, according to Benzinga Pro data.
Cues From The Last Session
U.S. stocks rebounded on Monday, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq leading the gains. The Nasdaq Composite surged 0.98%, buoyed by strong performances from Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) and Nvidia Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA).
Economic data released on Monday showed mixed results. The Chicago Fed National Activity Index improved slightly, while U.S. durable goods orders unexpectedly declined.
Sector performance was varied. Communication services, healthcare, and information technology led the gains, while consumer staples and materials lagged. Last week, all major indices posted losses. The Dow Jones Industrial Average suffered its third consecutive losing week, declining by roughly 2.3%. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite also experienced declines, falling by approximately 2% and 1.8%, respectively.
| Index | Performance (+/-) | Value |
| Nasdaq Composite | 0.98% | 19,764.89 |
| S&P 500 | 0.73% | 5,974.07 |
| Dow Jones | 0.16% | 42,906.95 |
| Russell 2000 | -0.22% | 2,237.44 |
Insights From Analysts
According to the chief market strategist at Carson Research, Ryan Detrick even though the last seven days of the previous year were negative, “The next 7 days are officially the Santa Claus Rally period.”
Detrick also added that no other seven-day period except the last seven days of the year is more likely to be higher. This period of “Santa Rally” has given positive returns at least 78.4% of the time.
He also added that this year has seen only an 8.5% correction or peak-to-through pullback in August, however, on average a year sees a 14.2% correction, increasing the possibility of some correction in 2025.
While the first year of a new president’s term has usually been strong since 1897, the returns during the first year of a second term haven’t been very good overall, Detrick said.
Talking about the proposed policy changes by President-elect Donald Trump, Louis Navellier of Navellier & Associates said, “On the table is all the uncertainty about the many changes that the new Trump administration has announced, both how quickly they will be implemented and what the ripple effects might be especially tariffs. The conflicts in the Mideast and Ukraine appear to be escalating. In the end, these many risks will only impact stocks if they impact earnings, and for now, estimates for ’25 are holding.
“Optimistic analyst targets, stretched positioning and high valuations leave the market vulnerable to larger pullbacks in our view, should we see any of the rosy projections falling short of lofty expectations. This does not leave us underweight Equities. We acknowledge the power of bull markets mean there may still be room to run,” said Mario Georgiou, executive director, head of investments, at InCred Global Wealth.
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Upcoming Economic Data
A few important data points are slated to be released in this truncated week that will help investors determine the future course of action.
- On Tuesday, November’s data for durable goods orders and durable goods minus transportation will be released at 8:30 a.m., ET.
- New home sales for November will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.
- On Thursday, initial jobless claims data till Dec. 21 will announced at 8:30 a.m. ET.
- On Friday, November’s data for the advanced U.S. trade balance in goods, advanced retail inventories, and advanced wholesale inventories will be announced at 8:30 a.m., ET.
Stocks In Focus:
- Carbon Revolution PLC (NASDAQ:CREV) was up 56.81% in premarket after it inked an agreement with OIC for a further $25 million in financing to support the ongoing liquidity of the business.
- Avinger Inc (NASDAQ:AVGR) was up 236.4%. Last week, the company announced it has received a Notice of Allowance for a U.S. patent titled "Catheter Device With Detachable Distal End (For The Treatment Of Peripheral Artery Disease)."
- Tivic Health Systems Inc (NASDAQ:TIVC) was up 68% after the company’s CEO outlined 2025 priorities, seeing a 30% reduction in net operating loss.
- Neuehealth Inc (NYSE:NEUE) gained 58.93% after it entered into a definitive merger to be acquired for $7.33 per share.
- Theriva Biologics Inc (NYSE:TOVX) rose 30% after it received a notice of allowance for a U.S. Patent titled "Microbiome Protection from Oral Antibiotics."
Commodities, Gold And Global Equity Markets:
Crude oil futures were higher in the early New York session by 0.77% to hover around $69.77 per barrel.
The gold spot index was up by 0.11% to $2,631.19 per ounce. The Dollar Index was up 0.16% to 108.210 level.
Asian markets were mixed on Tuesday, as Hong Kong’s Hang Seng, China’s CSI 300 and Australia’s ASX 200 index rose. Whereas, South Korea’s Kospi, Japan’s Nikkei 225, and India’s S&P BSE Sensex index declined. Most European markets traded higher.
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