As Florida Prepares For One Of Deadliest Hurricanes, Here Are Some Potential Stock Winners And Losers From Milton Threat
The second Category 5 storm of the 2024 hurricane season named Hurricane Milton is threatening large-scale destruction, as it quickly graduated from Category 1 status and is approaching the state of Florida. The storm is expected to lash over the Tampa Bay on Wednesday.
Milton Vs. Previous Hurricanes: Hurricane Milton gathered maximum sustained wind speeds of 180 miles per hour by Monday night, and in terms of wind speed it only trails a 1980 hurricane, which went by the name Allen and boasted a top wind speed of 190 mph before it made landfall in the U.S.-Mexican border, said New York Times.
Going by pressure – which is another measure of a storm’s intensity, Milton is similar to Hurricane Wilma from the 2005 hurricane season that holds the record for the lowest pressure, the Times said.
The latest update issued by the National Hurricane Center early Tuesday showed Milton weakening to a Category 4 storm with wind speed slowing to 155 mph. The hurricane was moving east at 9 mph and was located 585 miles southwest of Tampa.
Milton is expected to regain Category 5 strength Tuesday morning and maintain this strength through the day, CNN’s update showed. It would then fluctuate in intensity before making landfall on Wednesday as a Category 3 storm.
Certified Consulting Meteorologist and NBC 6 South Florida John Morales, while on air, was overwhelmed with emotion as he described the hurricane. “It’s just an incredible, incredible, incredible hurricane. It has dropped 50 millibars in 10 hours,” he said before pausing to suppress his emotion. “I apologize. This is just horrific,” he said. Sharing a video clip of this, CNN media analyst Brian Stelter said, “NBC6’s @JohnMoralesTV is the longest-tenured TV meteorologist in South Florida. When he gets this serious, this emotional, on the air, viewers pay attention.”
Florida’s Preparedness: The Sunshine State is on full alert with multiple teams coordinating to prepare ahead of Milton’s landfall. At a Monday briefing, Florida’s emergency management director, Kevin Guthrie called out to people to be prepared, ABC News said. “If they have called an evacuation order, I beg you, I implore you to evacuate,” he reportedly said.
Jaime Hernandez, the emergency management director in Hollywood, Florida, reportedly asked people to be ready with a plan taking into account the changing forecasts, have an emergency kit and stay informed,
Writing on X, formerly Twitter, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis said, “Evacuations are underway, and we have suspended tolls and opened roadway shoulders to make it easier for Floridians to get to safety.” He directed people to take evacuate to pet-friendly shelters, special needs shelters, and other options that are safe from storm surges in their own counties.
Stocks To Keep Eye On:
Insurers: Property and casualty insurance stocks have been under pressure since Hurricane Helene that impacted Southeastern U.S. and they fell on Monday amid news concerning Milton. These stocks could be once again on the radar in Tuesday’s session. These include:
- Progressive Corporation (NYSE:PGR)
- Chubb Limited (NYSE:CB)
- Travelers Companies, Inc. (NYSE:TRV)
- Allstate Corporation (NYSE:ALL)
- Hartford Financial Services Group, Inc. (NYSE:HIG)
- Markel Group Inc. (NYSE:MKL)
- Loews Corporation (NYSE:L)
The steepest losses were recorded by Florida-based insurers such as Heritage Insurance Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:HRTG) (down over 23%, American Coastal Insurance Corporation (NASDAQ: ACIC) (down over 15%), and HCI Group, Inc. (NYSE:HCI) (down over 17%).
Given the 2024 hurricane season has been very active, insurers would be left saddled with catastrophe-related claims, which will weigh down on their margins and bottom line.
Phosphate Miners: Phosphate mining stocks such as Mosaic Company (NYSE:MOS) could be on the radar during a natural disaster. Florida’s phosphate industry is one of the major suppliers of the mineral internationally, and the U.S. ranks third in terms of phosphate production, after China and Morocco. In the U.S., phosphate mining takes place in Florida, North Carolina, Idaho and Utah, according to the Florida Industrial and Phosphate Research Institute, FIPRI.
The phosphate mineral is a source of phosphorous, a key nutrient for plant growth.
Florida's phosphate is part of a deposit that stretches across the state and up the coast to the Chesapeake Bay.
Florida Phosphate Council states that the phosphate industry in the state is a major economic driver and supports nearly 8,400 direct jobs. The industry accounts for an estimated $5.03 billion in annual economic output.
Josh Linville, Director of Fertilizer at integrated trading platform StoneX, said the phosphate market could be hurt. In an X post, he said, “FL is built to withstand hurricanes…to an extent. This looks bad. This looks really bad,” he said.
Even if production facilities withstand major damage, they need workers to run the plants, he added.
Alico, Inc. (NASDAQ:ALCO), which is a Florida-based agribusiness and land management company, also saw its shares sink over 8% on Monday. This stock was flagged by a substack writer who issues trading alerts.
Potential Beneficiaries: Shares of Generac Holdings Inc. (NYSE:GNRC), a manufacturer of generators, soared on Monday, potentially due to surging demand for its products in the aftermath of the hurricane.
Batteries are also in great demand during hurricanes, with household battery manufacturers such as Energizer Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:ENR) reaping windfall.
Once the hurricane subsides and life returns to normalcy, the havoc caused by it can stimulate reconstruction demand, with home-improvement retailers Home Depot, Inc. (NYSE:HD) and Lowe’s Companies, Inc. (NYSE:LOW) among the potential beneficiaries.
Building products and equipment companies such as Masco Corporation (NYSE:MAS) and used-car retailers such as Carvana Co. (NYSE:CVNA) and Carmax Inc. (NYSE:KMX) also stand to gain.
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